FORECASTING BUSINESS BANKRUPTCY WITH THE USE OF SOFT COMPUTING

Abstract

This article is about the prediction of bankruptcy of companies in Poland. In the article author compares seven methods of artificial intelligence of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. It is first attempt of comparative analysis of such wide variety of artificial intelligence methods in predicting bankruptcy in Poland. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.